Climate Action's Hidden Health Dividend: IRA Policies Could Save Millions of Lives
A groundbreaking new study has revealed the potential for massive public health benefits from climate policies outlined in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Using advanced computer modeling, researchers projected the long-term impacts of achieving the United States' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to greenhouse gas reduction.
The study utilized the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), a sophisticated system dynamics model that accounts for complex interactions across economic sectors. This allowed researchers to estimate the effects of climate policies on various health outcomes between 2022 and 2050.
The results are striking. Full implementation of NDC goals could prevent over 32,000 deaths by 2050. Even a partial 50% implementation would avoid over 13,000 deaths. The health benefits extend beyond mortality, with projections showing reductions in non-fatal heart attacks, asthma attacks, hospital admissions, and lost workdays.
Notably, the study found that minority racial and ethnic groups would see the greatest relative reductions in mortality. By 2050, the model projects avoided death rates of 1.01% for Black Americans, 1.24% for Asian Americans, and 1.75% for other/multiracial groups, compared to 0.74% for white Americans. Hispanic/Latino populations could see a 1.40% reduction versus 0.70% for non-Hispanic/Latino groups.
The largest impacts would come from three key areas: building electrification (28.30% of avoided deaths), electric vehicle sales standards (25%), and industrial electrification and hydrogen adoption (19.90%).
Beyond the incalculable value of lives saved, the study estimates the monetized benefits of avoided deaths and climate change costs could reach $1.88 trillion by 2050 with full implementation. Even at 50% implementation, savings are projected at $541 billion – far outweighing the IRA's $369 billion investment in climate provisions.
These findings underscore the profound connection between climate action and public health. They also highlight the potential for well-designed environmental policies to address longstanding health disparities in marginalized communities.
As the United States approaches the 2024 election, this research provides crucial context for debates surrounding the IRA and climate policy. While political disagreements persist, the projected health and economic benefits offer a compelling case for maintaining and potentially expanding climate initiatives.
The study does acknowledge limitations, including uncertainties in policy implementation and the inherent complexities of long-term modeling. However, it presents a strong argument that the health benefits of climate action could be even more immediate and far-reaching than previously understood.
This work was published on the journal American journal of preventive cardiology on 2024-09-01 with the title "The projected impact of the inflation reduction act's climate provisions on cardiovascular and respiratory outcomes." It is available at: 10.1016/j.ajpc.2024.100707.